Market tape: S&P 500 769.67 +0.74%, Nasdaq 100 749.53 +1.01%, Dow 30 511.07 +0.48%, Russell 2000 281.47 +0.88%, Gold 380.18 −0.67%, US 10Y 5.28% +0.04, US 30Y 5.63% +0.02, Bitcoin 84,511 −0.43%, Ethereum 2,661.63 −1.65%
Close, Oct 2
S&P 500, close Oct 2
Yields in %, change in points
Settle, Oct 2
Delayed quotes from the last available close. ETF proxies for index levels. Fear & Greed, gainers and oil settles as printed in the Daily Recap.
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Nvidia hits a fresh high near $6 trillion, a soft jobs report lifts the S&P 500 to 7,722.72, and WTI crude falls to $91.11 as the G7 releases diesel stocks
Plus index closes, top gainers, the Fed path and tomorrow's earnings calendar.
Current target range
3.75-4.00%
The CME FedWatch Tool's own page showed 77.9% odds the Fed holds its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at the October 28 meeting against 22.1% for a quarter-point hike to 4.00% to 4.25%, with no odds priced for a cut.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28%, up 4bp on the US Treasury's daily par curve. The 2-year rose 5bp to 4.83% and the 30-year rose 2bp to 5.63%, steepening the 2s10s spread to 45bp. Separately, Tradeweb's own 10-year yield finished at 5.276%, up 4.3bp on the day and 9.6bp on the week, after an early plunge toward roughly 5.18% on the jobs miss fully reversed as oil recovered, according to Morningstar and Dow Jones Data Talk.
Market-implied odds the Fed holds rates steady at its October 28 meeting touched as high as 82.8% intraday right after the payrolls print, according to CNBC, before settling lower by the close (see below); the intraday round trip in yields shows how quickly that repricing was partly unwound as oil regained ground.
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Earnings, breadth, sector rotation and the single-stock stories moving the tape.
Fed, CPI, payrolls and the curve: what is priced and what is assumed.
Energy, metals and the dollar, read as inputs to equity earnings.
Regulation, tariffs and elections, covered as market events, not politics.
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